Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Numbers Go Where Words Fear to Tread


Too many newspaper columns and features trade in the same tired "here's a good guy and now I'll tell you why" formula that has left me numb.

Don't get me wrong. I wouldn't mind if my team or yours had on its rosters any number of good, likable guys with fun stories. But these articles tell me nothing about what they will do when the game is on the line.

Can you win the faceoff repeatedly? Can you score? Can you stop the puck? Can you put their scorer butt-down on the ice? The rise in analytics, or the attempt to quantify the game as a means to explain what is going on, holds my interest while newspapers and some websites, tied to the old formula, go in the discard bin or are tied with string and put out on the curb.

If you have not visited Hockey Prospectus yet, you had better get to that mostly free party before they close the doors on you. The site's preview of the Stanley Cup finals deals with none of the these good human interest stories versus those human interest stories. You get the numbers and what they may mean or what they don't come close to showing you. In other words, numbers with context. Not adjectives with little purpose.

Compare the above analysis with that of ESPN the Website's Pierre LeBrun, whom you can usually count on for quality information. But notice the lack of hard information in this preview. Now, take an extended walk with me on this one. Which type of analysis would you want when going to put your hard cash down for a car?

Would you want one that tells you the tragedy that has befallen Salesman A at the dealership or how, prior to said tragedy, he was only responsible for 25 percent of the lemons that were driven off the lot. But he's still a good guy because he is trying.

Or would you want to know, in clear numbers, Salesman A will rob you blind, Saleswoman B is not much better and the owner of the lemon dealership is happily taking all this cash and putting it into a second Olympic size pool in his spacious back yard (a former citrus grove). (Note the work at FiveThirtyEight, which sprinkles in quite a few more words for those of you who require a few more vowels while digesting your numbers.)

Your time is limited so make the most of it when it comes to previews and treat the Cup finals the way horse players treat a day at the track. Look at the numbers and run them around in your own head. Come up with your own pattern. Remember to show your work.

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